“Teaching Elections through a Data-Driven Lens with Caroline Tolbert”

Professor Caroline Tolbert (University of Iowa) will lead a discussion on teaching students about the 2024 presidential election using data and empirical analysis. The session will discuss public opinion polling, polling predictions (538), and money spent in the 2024 election (i.e. open secrets, including SuperPACs and dark money). We will explore exit poll data and the demographics and issues behind the candidates. Attention will be placed on the presidential battleground states and ad buys, as well as the 80 percent of Americans who don’t live in one of the seven battleground states. Along the way, we will discuss reform of presidential elections, including the direct election of the president.

Beyond the presidency, we will explore data on competitive congressional elections (Cook Political Report), statewide ballot measures, and unusual results. Unique challenges this election season include extensive misinformation (including deepfakes), election denialism, billionaires backing candidates with million-dollar-a-day giveaways, legal challenges, natural disasters, and other factors. Significant variation in state voting laws matters for turnout, including mail voting, early voting, and automatic voter registration. Because of the extensive use of mail voting ballots and possible election audits, the election results may be delayed. Finally, we will evaluate the key policy issues in the election.

This teaching session is presented from a nonpartisan perspective. The event will be recorded, so those who cannot attend live can register to receive a recording after the session.

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